Assessing the impact of rising ambient temperatures on urban mortality rates using satellite mapping

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Abstract

Introduction. In the context of the change in global climate, the gain in the mortality rate due to an elevation of the temperature in the urban environment with the appearance of “heat waves” becomes an urgent problem.

Materials and methods. To analyze the spatial distribution of risks and damages from premature mortality, there were selected cities located in several climatic zones of Russia including Omsk, Astrakhan, Rostov-on-Don, Lipetsk, Arkhangelsk. For satellite mapping of risks and damages from premature deaths caused by an elevation of the temperature in urban spaces, materials from summer surveys by Landsat series satellites were used.

Results. The analysis of all satellite maps allows concluding the risks of an increase in urban temperature, potential deaths, and economic damage within the territories of the studied cities to be unevenly distributed. Advanced values of potential mortality are localized in places where high population density coincides with an enhanced risk of the temperature rise. The highest damage values were noted in Rostov-on-Don and Astrakhan, the lowest – in Arkhangelsk.

Limitations. Mortality analysis was carried out without taking into account the age and sex structure of the population.

Conclusion. The results of applying the methodology for satellite mapping of risks and economic losses from premature mortality due to rising urban temperatures showed accuracy acceptable for making management decisions to protect the health of the urban population. The results of satellite mapping of these events can be used in the development of preventive measures aimed at reducing premature mortality.

Compliance with ethical standards. The study does not require the submission of a biomedical ethics committee opinion or other documents.

Contribution:
Buzinov R.V. – concept and design of the study, collection of materials;
Noskov S.N. – concept and design of the study, collection of materials, writing the text of the article, editing;
Eremin G.B. – concept and design of the study, editing the article;
Kovshov A.A. – concept and design of the study, editing the article;
Gorny V.I. – concept and design of the study, material processing, data analysis, text writing, article editing;
Kritsuk S.G. – concept and design of the study, material processing, data analysis, text writing, article editing;
Latypov I.Sh. – concept and design of the study, material processing, data analysis, text writing, article editing;
Tronin A.A. – concept and design of the study, material processing, data analysis, text writing, article editing.
All authors are responsible for the integrity of all parts of the manuscript and approval of the manuscript final version.

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Acknowledgement. The study had no sponsorship.

Received: May 3, 2024 / Accepted: June 19, 2024 / Published: September 10, 2024

About the authors

Roman V. Buzinov

North-West Public Health Research Center

Author for correspondence.
Email: r.buzinov@s-znc.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8624-6452

MD, PhD, Director of the North-West Public Health Research Center, St.-Petersburg, 191036, Russian Federation

e-mail: r.buzinov@s-znc.ru

Russian Federation

Sergey N. Noskov

North-West Public Health Research Center; North-Western State Medical University named after I.I. Mechnikov

Email: sergeinoskov@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7971-4062

MD, PhD, Technical Director of the Inspection Body, senior researcher of the North-West Public Health Research Center, St.-Petersburg, 191036, Russian Federation; Associate Professor of the Department of Communal Hygiene of the North-Western State Medical University named after I.I. Mechnikov, St.-Petersburg, 191015, Russian Federation

e-mail: sergeinoskov@mail.ru

Russian Federation

Gennady B. Eremin

North-West Public Health Research Center

Email: yeremin45@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1629-5435

MD, PhD, head of the Department of Population Health Risk Analysis of the North-West Public Health Research Center, St.-Petersburg, 191036, Russian Federation

e-mail: yeremin45@yandex.ru

Russian Federation

Aleksandr A. Kovshov

North-West Public Health Research Center; North-Western State Medical University named after I.I. Mechnikov

Email: a.kovshov@s-znc.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9453-8431

MD, PhD, head of the Occupational Hygiene Dept., senior researcher, North-West Public Health Research Center, St.-Petersburg, 191036, Russian Federation; Associate Professor, Department of Hygiene of Educational, Training, Labour Conditions, and Radiation Hygiene, North-Western State Medical University named after I.I. Mechnikov, St.-Petersburg, 191015, Russian Federation

e-mail: a.kovshov@s-znc.ru

Russian Federation

Viktor I. Gorny

Saint-Petersburg Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: v.i.gornyy@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9706-6919

MD, PhD, head of the Laboratory of Remote Sensing Methods of Geoecological Monitoring and Geoinformatics, Saint-Petersburg Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St.-Petersburg, 199178, Russian Federation

e-mail: v.i.gornyy@mail.ru

Russian Federation

Sergey G. Kritsuk

Saint-Petersburg Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: sit.bloom@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3781-322X

senior researcher, North-West Public Health Research Center, St.-Petersburg, 191036, Russian Federation; researcher, Laboratory of remote geoecological monitoring and geoinformatics, Saint-Petersburg Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St.-Petersburg, 199178, Russian Federation

e-mail: sit.bloom@gmail.com

Russian Federation

Iskander Sh. Latypov

Saint-Petersburg Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: liscander@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8653-7308

MD, PhD, senior researcher, Laboratory of remote geoecological monitoring and geoinformatics, Saint-Petersburg Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St.-Petersburg, 199178, Russian Federation

e-mail: liscander@mail.ru

Russian Federation

Andrey A. Tronin

Saint-Petersburg Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: tronin.a@spcras.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7852-8396

MD, PhD, DSci., Director of the St. Petersburg Research Center for Environmental Safety of the Russian Academy of Sciences — a separate structural subdivision of the Saint-Petersburg Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St.-Petersburg, 199178, Russian Federation

e-mail: tronin.a@spcras.ru

Russian Federation

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Copyright (c) 2024 Buzinov R.V., Noskov S.N., Eremin G.B., Kovshov A.A., Gorny V.I., Kritsuk S.G., Latypov I.S., Tronin A.A.


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